Work in progress:
Bohemian Travesty
----------------------------
Is this the real life?
Is this just fantasy?
Won a fake landslide,
By rejecting reality
Open your eyes,
Look up to the skies and see,
I'm just a rich man, devoid of all empathy,
And I'm easily bored, and really slow
tiny hands, and little toes
Any way the nation goes doesn't really matter to me, to me
Melania, I could kill a man
Put a gun against his head
Pull my trigger, then he's dead
Melania, I just want to prove
I could cap some bitch and still just walk away
Melania, ooh
Didn't mean to make you cry
I'll be up late tweeting straight through till tomorrow
Kellyanne, carry on. Oh I'm such a stable genius
Comey, your time is through
Cause you wouldn't fall in line
And Putin's watching all the time
Goodbye Judge Sessions, you had to go
Gotta toss you all aside and hide the truth
Melania, ooh (any way the nation goes)
We've gotta keep telling lies
Sometimes I wish I'd never brought up the Wall
I see a little silhouetto of a man,
Scaramooch, Scaramooch, will you do the Fox Morning Show?
Sarah Huckabee is lying
Very, very frightening, whee!
(Giuliani) Giuliani
(Giuliani) Giuliani
Giuliani Figaro
Magnifico-o-o-o-o
I'm just a rich man, everybody loves me
He's just a rich man from a rich family
Narcissism rife with malignant cruelty
Tax returns, Russian probes, will you let it go?
Bob Mueller!: No, I will not let it go (let it go!)
Bob Mueller!: will not let it go (let it go!)
Bob Mueller!: will not let it go (let it go!)
Will not let it go (let it go!)
Never, never let it go
Never let it go, oh
No, no, no, no, no, no, no
Oh, mama mia, mama mia (mama mia, let it go)
The FBI has a jury standing by for me, for me, for me
So you think you can stop me and spit in my eye?
So you think you can impeach me and shove me aside?
Oh, bigly, can't do this to me, bigly
Just pardon it out, I'll just pardon myself outta here
Nothing really matters
Anyone can see
Nothing really matters
Nothing really matters but me
Any way the nation goes ...
-------------------------------------
Original song, lyrics, and inspiration belong to Freddy Mercury - I hope he approves
The argument that the government cannot require citizens to pay for something they don't want to is childish and wrong. It happens all the time. Taxes, licenses, garbage fees. So they pretzel their logic to say that what makes it unconstitutional is making people purchase it from a private source, even though you can be coerced to buy from the government - such as Social Security and Medicare social insurance contributions. Again, nonsense. One of the earliest acts of the Republic was to require merchant marines to buy private hospital insurance. Another required all free men of militia age to purchase and keep a firearm. Laws against public nudity require the purchase of clothing from private sources.
The 'broccoli' argument is the most absurd. Usually run along the lines of "if the government can require you to buy health insurance, what is next, broccoli?". As if the idea of buying broccoli is so morally bankrupt that anything that starts the slippery slope that ends with broccoli is evidence of unequaled tyranny. Here's the thing, not buying health insurance is very very costly, since lack of insurance does NOT prevent the delivery of medical care, it just pushes the cost onto others. This is not theoretical, we know that right now, every private health insurance policy in America is about $1000 more expensive because of the cost of treating the uninsured. People who can afford insurance but choose not to buy it are transferring real and substantial costs to others. This does not happen with broccoli.
On legal and logical grounds the case before the Supreme Court is groundless. But this is a political court, and this is a partisan political issue, so here it is. We know that a solid majority of the court is aligned with the political forces that want this law overturned. But will they?
Consider this. This court took this case politically, they will rule on it politically. But what is the bigger picture? Chief Justice Roberts is already worried about his troubled legacy, particularly due to his pivotal role in the disastrous Citizens United outrage. Scalia is concerned about his own reputation for making principled judgments narrowly focused on the minutia of constitutional law and history, yet always seems able to bend them to reach his desired political result. Alito is shedding his "Scalito" reputation as Scalia's second vote. Kennedy, who values his role as 'reasonable swing vote' has been anything but, he almost always swings right in politically charged cases. Only Thomas is unapologetically always political. The other 4 conservatives have reasons concerning reputation and legacy to at least consider being something other than a rubber stamp. But they are still going to make a political decision in this case.
What factors might influence their political decision? Well ... there is an election going on. What do you suppose will be the political fallout of a decision that overturns, or guts the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) just three months before the election? Probably not much on the presidential race, by all accounts the GOP will be putting up the most unpopular nominee in decades (no matter who gets the nod), so they will depend on their Citizens United enabled billions to use saturation attack ads to close the gap. The presidential election will depend on if overwhelming advertising is enough to decide the vote. But that is not the only election. The GOP has a commanding majority in the House to defend, and only need switch two or three seats to take the Senate. But in the aftermath of an anti-Obamacare SCOTUS decision, what happens? Outrage and anger in the Democratic base, and not a few independents too. When they lose it, they will suddenly notice all the very popular things in ACA that they and even Republicans like and overwhelming want, all taken away. Lots of outrage and anger.
Elections very seldom turn on persuasion, they are decided by which side is most effective at turning out its partisans and discouraging its opponents partisans - that's how negative ads work, they don't change minds, they make people stay home. But an anti-Obamacare decision will angerize the Democratic base, and they will turn out in numbers not seen since ... 2008. The GOP base is already energized in its hatred of Obama, and an anti-Obamacare decision will not increase that, indeed they may become less energized in their satisfaction with the political win and its slapdown of Obama.
So there you have it, the most likely political outcome of the Supreme Court overturning or gutting Obamacare will be new and larger Democratic majorities in the House and Senate - with the ability to repair Obamacare, or even replace it with single payer. That is what those four conservatives will have to consider while making their political decision on Obamacare. Are they willing to make a bad decision, that fulfills their partisans' political desire to kill Obamacare, knowing it will lead to GOP defeat and lasting harm to the conservative movement? Or will they burnish their reputations and save the GOP (despite itself) by reluctantly upholding it.
I don't know, they have proven themselves to be incredibly reckless, but I think there is a very good chance that at least one of them will choose to make the right decision for all the wrong reasons - and one is all that it will take.
UPDATE June 28, 2012
ACA UPHELD by US Supreme Court
It is surprising that the remaining 4 conservatives - including the so-called 'moderate' Kennedy - all dissented and were apparently willing to completely overturn ACA despite the likely adverse consequences for the GOP. However - I suspect one of the other conservatives would have found a reason to switch his vote if Roberts hadn't - partisanship trumps ideology for this conservative block, which is why they are always willing to be the most extreme 'activists' to uphold GOP interests no matter how much they claim to be strict constructionists.